Deutsche Bank-China Market Perspectives 2024 Outlook A year of stability...-106065884

DeutscheBankCross-DisciplineDateResearch22January2024ChinaMarketAsiaPerspectivesChinaHongKong2024Outlook:Ayearofstability?Thematics-Isbadnewsgoodnewsinaway?Therehasn'tbeenmuchtocheerforPerryKojodjojoChinaatthestartof2024-eitherondatafrontorintermsofmarketpriceaction.IsStrategistbadnewsgoodnewsinawaythough?Overthepastfewdays,thegovernmenthas+852-22036153beenrampingupitsannouncementofmeasuresbothonthefiscalandpropertyfrontstosupportgrowth.Tobesure,westillneedtosee(a)speedierandmorePeterMilliken,CFAcoordinatedimplementation;and(b)sizingupinthesupportmeasures(particularlyResearchAnalystinthepropertysector).Butthewillingnessoftheauthoritiestodomoreinstabilizing+852-22036190growth,versustheprevailinglevelofbearishnessontheChinanarrative,makestherisk-rewardrelativelymoreattractivetogolongChineseassets.YiXiong,Ph.D.ChiefEconomistEconomics-Waitingforpolicytailwind.China'strendgrowthhasshifted+852-22036139downwardinrecentyears.Webelievethatpotentialgrowthisnowinthe4.5-5%range.Thismeansthattheeconomy,growingby4.1%onaveragein2022-23,isDeyunOuoperatingbelowpotential.However,theeconomylackstheendogenousResearchAssociatemomentumtorebound.Assuch,onlythegovernmentcanjump-starttheeconomythroughforcefulandcoordinatedpolicyresponses.A1.5%-2%ofGDPexpansioninfiscalspending,combinedwithfurtherPBoCratecuts,shouldbesufficienttoliftGD...