Deutsche Bank-Asia Week Ahead What you need to know 29 Apr-2 May-107851451

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch26April2024AsiaWeekAheadAsiaWhatyouneedtoknow:29Apr-2MayWeekaheadJulianaLeeWeexpectHongKongtoreportGDPgrowthof1.5%yoyinQ1vs4%growthintheChiefEconomistpasttwoquarters,withtheslowdownmainlyduetotwofactors.First,an+65-6423-5203unfavourablebaseeffectisinplay.HongKongreopeneditsbordersandgainedanincreaseof6pptinGDPgrowthfromQ4-22toQ1-23.Second,thedelayintheFed'sKaushikDaseasingcycleandconcernsrelatingtoinvestorconfidenceinChina’seconomyhaveChiefEconomistledtoheadwindsinHongKong’sfinancialsector.Consideringthechallengesinthe+91-22-71804909financialsectorandtheirnegativespillovertotourismandothersectors,wetrimour2024GDPgrowthforecastby0.5pptto2.5%.GrowthinretailsalesvolumeandYiXiong,Ph.D.valuelikelymoderatedto-4.7%yoyand0.9%yoy,respectively,inMarch.ChiefEconomist+852-22036139Taiwan'sGDPlikelyflattenedoutinQ1,afterthe2.1%QoQsasurgeinQ4,althoughbaseeffectslikelylefttheyoygrowthratehigherat6%inQ1,upfrom4.9%inQ4.DeyunOuThiswouldbeledbystrongnettradecontribution,whileconsumptionlikelyResearchAssociateremainedresilient,justifyingratehikebytheCBC.SouthKorea'sinflationislikelytoease,albeitonlyslightly,to3%yoyinAprilfrom3.1%inMarch.ThisisnotsufficienttoeasetheBoK'sconcernsrelatingtoinflation.Afterasurgeinheadlinegrowthto3.4%yoyinQ1,againstamoremodestgainindetaileddomesticdemand,upcominghigh...