Deutsche Bank-US Economic Chartbook US Inflation Outlook Heartbreak hote...-106565865

DeutscheBankResearchUSInflationOutlook:Heartbreakhotelforratecuthopes?#PositiveImpactDistributedon:17/02/202400:44:09GMTFebruary2024JustinWeidner,MatthewLuzzetti,BrettRyan,AmyYangSuvirRanjan1ColumbusCircleNewYork,NewYork10019Tel:2124691679IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaTableofcontentsPageNumberTopcharts02Latestdevelopments08Distributionallookatinflation33Inflationexpectations43Leadingindicators56Importandexportpriceinflation66ForecastandModels70DReeseuatrscchheBankWeidner,Luzzetti,Ryan,YangFebruary20241TopchartsDReeseuatrscchheBankWeidner,Luzzetti,Ryan,YangFebruary20242DetailswithintheCPIandPPIpointtostrongJanuarycorePCEprintCoreCPIvs.CorePCECorePCECoreCPI%chg,m/m%chg,1.00m/m1.000.750.750.500.500.250.250.000.00-0.25WillhaveadotwithourestimateDoBfecsotirmeaPteCfEor-0.25printJanuarycorePCEprint-0.5020192020202120222023-0.5020182024Source:BEA,BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankDReeseuatrscchheBankWeidner,Luzzetti,Ryan,YangFebruary20243Strongportfoliomanagementlikelytoaddabout8bpstotheJancorePCEprintPortfoliomanagementinflationandportfolioreturns%chg,Returnon60/40portfolio(1mlead)PPI:portfoliomanagement%chg,m/mm/m1212884400-4-4-8-8-12201920...