Deutsche Bank-Asia Macro Insight The last mile-106063674

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch22January2024AsiaMacroInsightAsiaThelastmileApositiveturninthesemicycleislikelytoseeanotableriseinadvancedAsianJulianaLeeeconomies'growth,althoughgeopoliticaltensionsintheMiddleEastposegreaterChiefEconomistdownsideriskstothemthantoothersintheregion.+65-6423-5203Despiteelevatedexternalrisks,inflationhasfallenfasterthanexpectedinAsia,YiXiong,Ph.D.supportingamoredovishpolicytiltbytheregion'scentralbanks.ChiefEconomist+852-22036139BIandBSParecalibratingthetimingoftheirratecuts,whileBoKhasturnedneutral,althoughitspolicyeasingislikelytokickoffinJuly–togetherwithMAS.WhileBoTKaushikDasholdsfirmagainstpressure,BNMmaystrikeamoredovishtoneongrowth,givenChiefEconomistdownsidesurprise.AlthoughthePBoCdidnotcutearlierthismonth,aswidely+91-22-71804909anticipated,butweseeitdoingsoeventually.DeyunOuResearchAssociateOurprevailingviewremainsthatAsiancentralbankswillstartcuttingratesinthemid-year,withAsianFXunlikelytoappreciateagainsttheUSdollaronasustainedbasisuntiltheFed'spolicypivot.Taiwan'selectionresulthasnotpromptedustorecalibrateouroutlookforthateconomy;wealsodonotseeacompellingreasontorethinkourviewonanyoftheothersatthisjuncture.Indonesiaisnextinlineforanelection(on14February),followedbySouthKorea(10April)andIndia(April/May).Instead,theUSelectionhasgreaterpotentialtoprovokearethinkofourvi...