Deutsche Bank-Asia Macro Insight Moving target-107857539

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch27April2024AsiaMacroInsightAsiaMovingtargetThereislimitedconvictionovertheratesoutlookforAsiaamidelevateduncertaintyJulianaLeeoverUSratesandoilpriceandfxvolatility.Ifthatwasn'tenough,domesticpoliticsChiefEconomist(andfiscalstimuluspush)addedanotherlayerofcomplexityindecisionmaking.+65-6423-5203AfterBIsurprisedthemarketwitharatehike,theCBCstoodoutastheleadingYiXiong,Ph.D.candidatetodothesame.ChiefEconomist+852-22036139WhilebothBSPandSBVremainreluctant,thelatterhadtotightenliquiditytosupportthedong.Evenifcurrentheadwindsease,wedonotexpecttheSBVtocut,KaushikDasasweseeinflationheadinghigher.Meanwhile,thetimingofmonetaryeasingbyBIChiefEconomistandBSPremaintiedtothatoftheFed.Althoughnotassensitive,wealsoseeRBI+91-22-71804909waitingatleastuntilOctobertoease.DeyunOuResearchAssociateDespiterelativeweaknessindomesticdemand,strongerheadlinegrowthrenderstheopticsofmonetaryeasingdifficulttojustify,withoutharddataconfirmingeitherasignificanteasingofgrowthmomentumordisinflation,especiallywhenarguingagainstasizablefiscalstimulus.Giventhetimingofrelateddatareleases,theBoKmaywaituntilAugusttoease.TheBoTmayalsowaituntilAugust,duetotheSenateelectioninJune,whileSingapore'sgeneralelectionalsoposesriskstoourforecastoftheMAS'seasinginOctober.AlthoughthePBoCwillresumeitsratecutsearlier,thedepthofitsra...