Deutsche Bank-Asia Week Ahead What you need to know 18-22 Mar-107091527

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch18March2024AsiaWeekAheadAsiaWhatyouneedtoknow:18-22MarWeekaheadJulianaLeeWeexpectChina'sretailsalestostrengthento6%ytdyoyinJan-Feb,reflectingChiefEconomiststrongerconsumeractivityduringtheLNYholidays.Meanwhile,industrial+65-6423-5203productionwilllikelygrowmodestlyby5%ytdyoyinJan-Feb.Ona2-year-averagebasis,itwillsignalasustaineddecelerationinmomentumstartingfromSep-23,KaushikDasjustifiedbythedeterioratingPMIsanddecliningPPIinflationinthefirsttwomonthsChiefEconomistof2024.Fixedassetinvestmentwilllikelyslowto2.5%ytdyoy,owingtoweaker+91-22-71804909propertyinvestmentandslowergovernmentborrowing.YiXiong,Ph.D.HongKongCPIisexpectedtoreboundto2%yoyinFebruaryafterfallingforfourChiefEconomistconsecutivemonths,thankstostrongtourismduringLNYandtheincreasing+852-22036139inflationinmainlandChina.Theunemploymentrateisforecasttoremainunchangedat2.9%.DeyunOuResearchAssociateWecontinuetoexpecttheCBCpolicyratetoremainunchangedthrough2024.Infact,theCBCkeptitshawkishbias,assuggestedintheQ4MonetaryPolicyminutes,keepingitsdooropentoratehikesincaseofpersistent(higher-than-expected)inflation.BasedontheCBC'sprevailingforecast,itsrealratewouldaveragearoundzerothisyear.But,a10-15%electricitypricehikeswouldadd0.12%and0.24%toheadlineCPIinflation,theprevailingCBCforecastofwhichstandsat1.9%,therebyleavingrea...