BofA_Global Fund Manager Survey My Herd is my Bond_20240116

AccessibleversionGlobalFundManagerSurveyMyHerdismyBondBofAJanuaryGlobalFundManagerSurvey16January2024BottomLine:FundManagerSurvey(FMS)respondentsareveryoptimisticonratecutsInvestmentStrategyandmacro“soft”landingbutJancashlevelsareupfrom4.5%to4.8%asbondmarketGlobaloptimismtempered,andbondsdrivingthe“herd”;BofABull&BearIndicatorupto5.5,highestsinceNov'21,positioningnotcontrarian+ve;newcatalysts(e.g.globalgrowth)MichaelHartnettrequiredforupside.InvestmentStrategistBofASOnMacro:FMSinvestorsleastpessimisticonglobalgrowthsinceFeb'23,onprofits+16468551508sinceFeb'22;“soft/no”landingsay79%vs.17%say“hard”landing;incontrast,for1stmichael.hartnett@bofa.comtimesinceMay’22,investorsexpectChinagrowthtoweaken.ElyasGalou>>InvestmentStrategistOnRates,Crowds&Tails:bothbond&equityinvestorssayFed#1driverofpriceinBofASE(France)’24;recordoptimismonratecuts(just3%expecthigherrates),butdipinoptimismon+33187700087bondyields;mostcrowdedtrade“longMagnificentSeven”&“long-durationtech”bestelyas.galou@bofa.comwaytoplayratecuts,nolonger“long30-yearTreasury.”AnyaShelekhinInvestmentStrategistOnAA,Regions&Sectors:rotationoutofbondsintocash,outofbanksintoREITsBofAS(12-monthhigh);globalequityOWtrimmedbutlargestOWinUSstockssinceDec'21;+16468553753masspreferencefor“high-quality”but1sttimesinceJun’21small-cappreferredtolarge.any...