CrossAssetResearch21April2024GlobalPortfolioManager'sDigestFOCUSSlowdownEquityProductManagementGroupTerenceMaloneWeprovidecontextandperspectiveonresearchacrossregions+12125267578andassetclasses,thisweekhighlighting:ourthoughtsonUSterence.malone@barclays.comequitiesas1Qearningsseasonbegins;US-ChinatradepoliciesBCI,USandimplicationsfortheChineseeconomy,FXmarkets,andcredit;andalookintothefutureofhydrogenproduction.RobBate+44(0)2077733576•TheSetupforUSEquitiesintoEarnings:With1Q24resultsnowunderway,forwardrob.bate@barclays.comBarclays,UKestimatesareonceagaindriftinglowerintotheprint.Notably,top-linegrowthestimateshaveremainedrelativelystable,implyingthatdownwardrevisionstoEPSgrowtharecomingfromFICCProductManagementGroupexpectationsofincreasedcostheadwinds.Further,theStreetisonceagaincautiousonBenMcLannahanmargins,perhapsbecausetheSPXmargininflectionwasdefendedbyjustahandfulofmega-+44(0)2031349586capTechnameslastquarter,andisstillconsideredtenuous.Thatsaid,estimatesfurtheroutben.mclannahan@barclays.comremainuntouched,andcontinuetoimplythatSPXprofitmarginswillrisetoanall-timeBarclays,UKrecordthisyearevenas1Q24estimateslookformarginstoshrinkYoYformostmajorsectors.Tous,thissuggestslowconfidenceinthemarginoutlookfor2024,andthatconsensushasJenniferCardilliadoptedawait-and-seeapproachuntilmarginexpansionestablishesabro...
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