MJanuary2,202404:05AMGMTFoundationInvestorPresentationAsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+8522848-6511ChinaEconomics:ABumpyRobinXingRoadtoReflationChiefChinaEconomistRobin.Xing@morganstanley.comMorganStanleyappreciatesyoursupportinthe2024InstitutionalInvestorAll-AsiaResearchTeamSurvey.VotingwillopenearlyJanuary2024.Forimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.MFoundationSection1:2024ChinaEconomicOutlook2MFoundation2024ChinaEconomicOutlookCEWC:ModestStimulusvs.HighTargetPolitburoMeetingandCEWCPolicyExpectationGrowthTarget•Increaseeconomicvitalityandimprove•IncreasedimportanceofeconomicgrowthinthepolicyFiscalPolicyexpectationsobjectivesMonetaryPolicyHousingPolicy•Factorinnon-economicpoliciesinthemacro•Anupbeatgrowthtargetof"around5%“policyframeworkSource:MorganStanleyResearch•Strengthenfiscalpolicyappropriately,withimprovedqualityandeffectiveness•InitialofficialbudgetandLGSBquotacouldbemoderate•Morereactivefiscaleasingcouldbetriggeredin2Hshould•AllowLGSBtobeusedasseedcapitalinmoreareas1Hgrowthmisstheannualtarget•"Flexibleandappropriate",suggestingmodest•Increasetheusageofpre-approvedrelendingtoolseasing•Ampleliquidityinjectionstofacilitategovernmentbond•Strengthenedinnovationandcoordinationofissuancepolicytools•Proactivelyde-riskthesector•Furthereasingofhomepurc...
发表评论取消回复