Deutsche Bank-Thematic Research Monthly Chartbook When central banks cut...-106205113

DeutscheBankResearchJanuary2024Whencentralbankscutrates……whathappensnext?#PositiveImpactDistributedon:29/01/202411:58:11GMTJimReidHenryAllenHeadofGlobalEconomicsMacroStrategist&ThematicResearch(+44)-20-7541-1149(+44)-20-7547-2943henry-f.allen@db.comjim.reid@db.comGalinaPozdnyakovaRajsekharBhattacharyyagalina.pozdnyakova@db.comrajsekhar-a.bhattacharyya@db.comIMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaTheeasingcyclehasstarted.InQ42023,thenumberofglobalcutswentaboveglobalhikesforthefirsttimesinceJanuary2021.NumberofGlobalhikesvs.cutssinceJanuary2021#ofactionsHikesCuts#ofactions454540403530352520301510255020151050Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Source:VariousCentralBanks,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBank;Lastupdate:January26DeutscheBankResearchJimReid(+44)2075472943jim.reid@db.com1TheEMworldwasslightlyaheadofDMinthishikingcycleandit’sshowingsignsofbeingaheadintheeasingcycle.PercentageofDMandEMcountrieswithpolicyratehikesandcutsHikesCuts70%80%EMDMEMDM70%60%60%50%50%...