Deutsche Bank-Fed Watcher Easing into policy easing-106677414

DeutscheBankAmyYangResearchEconomist(+1)2122509959amy.yang@db.comFedWatcher:EasingintopolicyeasingMatthewLuzzettiDistributedon:23/02/202423:36:05GMTChiefUSEconomist(+1)2122506161matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayResearchAssociateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comFebruary23,2024IMPORDTeAuNtsTchReBEaSnkEARAmCyHYDanIgSC(+L1O)2S1U2R25E0S99A59NDamAy.NyaAnLg@YSdbT.coCmERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOReSsUeaRrcEhINFORFMebAruTaIrOyN23,M20A2Y4HAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:EasingintopolicyeasingSummary:Fedofficialsunanimouslycalledformoretimeanddatatogainconfidenceontrendsbeforeeasingthepolicy,expressedlittleurgencyforcuts.DBView:Theeconomywillachievesoftlanding.Firstcutby25bpsinJune,atotalcutsof100bpsin2024occurringinJun/Jul/Sept/DecFedspeakFedspeak,continuedFedspeak,continuedWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasFOMC▪MostofficialsnotedtheriskofDaly[3]▪3ratecutsin2024is‘reasonable’.Williams[2]▪Ratescutslikelylaterthisyearminutescuttingtooquickly;acouplenoted(02/16)Favorsgradualpolicyadjustment(02/23)▪Jan.datadidn’tchangeviewon(02/21)downsiderisksofstayingtoohighwithpatienceandflexibility...