Deutsche Bank-UK economic notes Inflation Chartbook Easter effects over-...-107665808

Distributedon:17/04/202415:30:09GMTDeutscheBankResearchUKInflationChartbookEastereffectsover-egged–butservicespricesremainsstickyApril2024SanjayRaja,CFAFRSAChiefUKEconomistIMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaEastereffectsoveregged–butpricepressuresremainstickyOurUKInflationChartbookrecapsthelatestmonthlyinflationdata,presentingourkeytakeaways,includingmeasuresofunderlyinginflation.WealsoincludeanupdateofourinflationprojectionsforCPI,coreCPI,andRPI.Marchinflationbroadlyinlinewithourexpectations.HeadlineCPIslowedto3.2%y-o-y--atenthaboveconsensus,DBprojections,andBankofEnglandexpectations.CoreCPIfellto4.2%y-o-y,inlinewithourforecasts.ServicesCPIshiftedlowerto6%y-o-y–two-tenthshigherthanconsensusexpectations(includingtheBoE),butinlinewithourforecast.RPIslowedto4.3%y-o-y,alsoinlinewithourexpectations.Pushinginflationhigherwasacombinationofrisingenergyprices(i.e.pumpprices),tobaccoprices,hotelprices,andmobilephoneservices(amongothers).Ontheflipside,wecontinuedtoseemoredownwardmomentuminfoodandcoregoodsitems.Whatnext?Today'sdatashouldconfirmthatCPIisonitswayto~2%y-o-yinApril--butwenowthinkthepathtotheBankofEngland’stargetwillbeaslimone,give...