BofA-The Flow Show_-We're Not Far From It-240308

AccessibleversionTheFlowShow"We'reNotFarFromIt…"ScoresontheDoors:crypto55.8%,oil10.8%,stocks5.6%,gold4.6%,commodities07March20244.6%,USdollar1.5%,HYbonds1.0%,cash0.9%,IGbonds-0.8%,govbonds-2.4%YTD.InvestmentStrategyZeitgeist:“$6tnto$7tninmoneymarketfundsandallofitgetting5%inGlobalinterest…maybethat’swhatgivingeveryonetheconfidencetogospeculate.”March10th2000:Nasdaqbubblepeaked;notethatsemiconductorsrelativetoS&P500hitthehighestlevelsinceMar’00(Chart4)overthepastfewdays.March9th2020:10-yearTreasuryyieldhit0.3%,all-timelow;wars,inflation,deficits…historicbondlossespast4years(52%for30-yearUST,67%for100-yearAustriabond);myAmericanwifewasonceasked“what’sthebestthingaboutlivinginLondon?”…shereplied“Paris”;today:what’sthebestthingaboutstocks?…bonds.March9th2023:SVBcollapsed&kick-startedSiliconValleybullwithaidof$0.5tnFedliquidityandAI;whilethisdecade’ssocial,political,geopolitical,fiscaltrendsareunlike2010s,theenduring“bromance”oftheFed&WallSt(Chart5),plusbullleadershipofIGbonds&UStechstocksremainlike2010s.TheBiggestPicture:“hard”landingprobability(5%)verylowvs"soft"(75%)&"no"MichaelHartnett(20%);yetslumping“quitsratio”(lowestsinceJun’20-Chart2)consistentwithFedcutsInvestmentStrategist&says“labormarketrisk”growing;Febpayrolls>225k=nolanding,175-200ksoftBofASlanding,but<100klikelykick-startsb...