Deutsche Bank-Metals Mining Copper mine supply vs demand signals. Yunna...-107202435

DeutscheBankIndustryDateResearch24March2024Metals&MiningGlobalPeriodicalMetals&MiningMetals&MiningCopperminesupplyvsdemandsignals.LiamFitzpatrickYunnanrestarts.ANTO.ValuationsResearchAnalyst+44-20-754-13233GlobalCopper:mineproductionstalling,demandsignalssubduedCombinedoutputacrossChileandPeru,theworld'stwolargestcopperproducingEdwardGoldsmithcountries,wasflatYoYinJanuary,asharpdecelerationfrom7%YoYgrowthinJulyResearchAssociatelastyear,reflectingdecliningCodelcooutputandmajorprojectsreachingsteady+44-20-754-77449stateinPeru.Followingmaterialdowngradesto2024productioninrecentmonths,weforecast2024minesupplygrowthofonly~1%,leavingthemarketina~300ktBastianSynagowitzdeficit.Onthedemandside,reportsofpotentialsmeltercutsinChinaandResearchAnalystexcitementovermediumtermdemandgrowthfromdatacentresandelectricity+41-44-227-3377growthmorebroadlydrovearallyinthecopperpricelastweek,however,near-termindicatorsinChinaremainsubdued.ThenextfewweekswillprovidefurtherevidenceofthedemandpictureinChina,withtheriskofdisappointmentifsmeltercutsareonlylimitedandinventorydrawsarelowerthanexpected.Nonetheless,weexpecttheconcentratemarketdeficittotranslatelateintoatighterrefinedmarketinH2asex-Chinademandrecovers(DB$10,000/tcopperin2025)(link).BolidenCMD:stillwaitingforthe(capex)peakWeupgradedthesharesinSeptemberasavalueandcashflowrecove...