Deutsche Bank-Early Morning Haul UPS INCOMING; +Rail carloads, Truck rate...-106221678

DeutscheBankIndustryDateResearch30January2024EarlyMorningHaulNorthAmericaIndustryUpdateCanadaUnitedStatesIndustrialsAirFreight&LogisticsUPSINCOMING;+Railcarloads,TruckAmitMehrotrarates,DieselResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-2076UPS(Buy,USD158)incoming-Today’seditionofthe“EarlyMorningHaul”isabitearlierthanusual,inhonorofUPS4Qresultswhicharedueat6amET.AtaveryhighBenMohrlevel,weexpectagoodquarterfromthecompanyandhopesharescanfindsomeResearchAnalysttraction.Thekeymetricwillbeprofitsinthecompany'sDomesticbusiness,which+1-212-250-1708weestimatewillbeupbymorethandoublecomparedtoveryweak3Q'23levels.Consensusisalreadythere,sohowthecompanydoescomparedtoexpectationsChrisRobertsonwillbeimportant.Wewouldn'tbesurprisedifthecompanywaitsuntilitsMarch26ResearchAnalystinvestordaytogivefullyearguidance.Weexpectsomecoloron1Q'24,whichis+1-212-250-9995likelytobedifficult,thoughwebelieveexpectationsarewellcalibrated.ThebottomlineiswereallylikethelongtermopportunityinUPSsharesasthebendsitscoststructurelowerstartingin2H'24.Wejustneedtogetpasttoday'sresultsand1Qguidanceforsharestodiscountthatmidtolongtermopportunity,inourview.Inthiscontext,we'dbebuyersonbothstrengthandweaknesstoday,butwe'rehopingforstrength.Railcarloads-TheClass1Railsreportedlastweek'svolumesyesterday.Withtheinclementweathersubsidingandlappingtheholidayweek,volumesarestar...