Barclays_Global_Macro_Thoughts_All_eyes_on_US_inflation

GlobalMacroThoughtsFOCUSAlleyesonUSinflationFICCResearchGlobalMacro13May2024AjayRajadhyaksha+12124127669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI,USMaxKitson+44(0)2035552386max.kitson@barclays.comBarclays,UKKaanhariSingh+85229032651kaanhari.singh@barclays.comBarclaysBank,HongKongWherenotedinthesourcenotes,theviewsexpressedwithinthisreportaretakenfrompreviouslypublishedresearch.Forfurtherdetail,includingimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertifications,pleasefollowthelinksoneachpageandonpage8.ThisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreportspreparedforretailinvestorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforitsownaccountandonadiscretionarybasisonbehalfofcertainclients.Suchtradinginterestsmaybecontrarytotherecommendationsofferedinthisreport.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE9.Restricted-ExternalTheworldataglance•TheUSisrunningtoohotfortheFed,whiletheECBandBoEareonadifferentpath•Despitesomeconcernsaroundtheconsumer,ithasbeenastrongearningsseason•LessonsaboutChina’spropertymarketfromarecentinvestortrip;stillnorebound•Makingsenseofitall213May2024Restricted-ExternalCentralbankdivergencecontinues;watchAsiancurrencies•WeexpectUSheadlineandcoreCPItorise0.39%and0.34%(m/mSA)inA...