Deutsche Bank-Fed Watcher Not now, maybe later (this year)-106855703

DeutscheBankAmyYangResearchEconomist(+1)2122509959amy.yang@db.comFedWatcher:Notnow,maybelater(thisyear)MatthewLuzzettiChiefUSEconomistDistributedon:04/03/202421:52:05GMT(+1)2122506161matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayResearchAssociateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comMarch04,2024IMPORDTeAuNtsTcheRBEanSkEAARmCyHYanDgIS(+C1L)O21S2U25R0E99S59AaNmDy.yaAnNg@AdLbY.cSomTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOReSsUeaRrcEhINFORMMaArcThI0O4,N20M24AYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:Notnow,maybelater(thisyear)Summary:Fedofficialsacrosshawk-dovespectrumseeratecuts“laterthisyear”andbumpyroadtobringinflationbackto2%targetDBView:Theeconomywillachievesoftlanding.Firstcutby25bpsinJune,atotalcutsof100bpsin2024occurringinJun/Jul/Sept/DecFedspeakFedspeak,continuedFedspeak,continuedWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWilliams▪ExpectedPCE@~2-2.25%in‘24Goolsbee▪Policyquiterestrictive;see‘relativelyDaly[3]▪Seeksmoreevidenceinflation[1](02/29,gradual’policyadjustment(02/29)towards2%.Balancedrisksof[2]and2%in‘25;growth@1.5%,03/01)▪CarefulwhileextrapolatingJanPCE,persistentinflation,eco.downturn(02/28,29)unemp...