Deutsche Bank-Early Morning Reid December, Q4 and 2023 Performance Review-105669801

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch2January2024EarlyMorningReidGlobalDecember,Q4and2023PerformanceHenryAllenReviewMacroStrategist+44-20-754-111492023wasanincrediblyeventfulyearinmarkets,withplentyofforcesforinvestorstonavigate.InMarch,therewassignificantturmoilfollowingthecollapseofSiliconJimReidValleyBank,leadingtosomeofthebiggestbondmarketmovesindecades.InMay,HeadofGlobalEconomicsandThematicwesawgrowingexcitementaboutthepotentialgrowthimpactfromAI,leadingtoResearchamajoroutperformancefrombigtechstocks.Thenfromthesummer,theprospect+44-20-754-72943ofinterestratesremaininghigherforlongerledtoamajorbondselloff,whichbrieflypushedthe10yrTreasuryyieldabove5%forthefirsttimesincetheGFC.Geopoliticaleventsremainedinfocustoo,particularlyafterHamas’attackonIsraelinOctober.Butfromlate-Octoberonwardstherewasanastonishingrallyacrossseveralassetclasses,asdeclininginflationledinvestorstogrowincreasinglyexcitedaboutasoftlanding.ThatthengotfurthermomentuminDecember,particularlyaftertheFederalReservesignalled75bpsofratecutsfor2024.Sodespiteseveralupsanddownsalongtheway,mostassetsputinastrongoverallperformancein2023.Forinstance,theS&P500posteda+26.3%gainintotalreturnterms,supportedbya+107%gainfromtheMagnificent7.Bondswerealsobackinpositiveterritoryaftertheirlossesovertheprevioustwoyears,thankstothelaterecoveryoverthefinaltwomonth...