Deutsche Bank-DBDaily DB launches a global default monitor-106208790

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch30January2024DBDailyGlobalDBlaunchesaglobaldefaultmonitorDBlaunchesaglobaldefaultmonitorPhilOdonaghoeUSA:DallasFedmfgactivity(Jan):Down17ptsto-27.4,belowmkt.EconomistNZL:Tradedeficit(Dec):NarrowstoNZD323m.+61-2-8258-1606JoinDBforawebinarontheoutlookforAIin2024.2pmLondontimetoday.Registerhere.USequitieswerestrongerMonday,S&Pup0.5%headingintotheclose,againontrackforafreshrecord.US10yryieldsdown7bpsto4.06%.Oilpricesdown1.3%despitetheweekenddronestrikeonUSforcesatamilitarybaseinJordan.ECB'sKazimir:ECBcutis"withinreach",Juneis"moreprobable"thanApril.SteveCapriowiththeinauguraleditionoftheDeutscheBankGlobalDefaultFigure1:MarketSummaryMonitor.Restrictiverealratesandmaturitywallsshouldengineeranextendeddefaultcyclethrough2025,theUSisparticularlyexposed.Current$&€spec-gradeEquities4916.000.5%FX1.08380.18%defaultsaremodestlyabovehistoricalaverages,butshouldrise(US)andplateauS&P500484.840.2%EURUSD147.260.39%(EU)fromhere,despitethemarketpricingthatdefaultrateswilldecline.Stoxx6000.0%USDJPY1.27170.09%FTSE7632.740.8%GBPUSD1.34110.20%Whencentralbankscutrates,whathappensnext?JimReid'slatestmonthlyNikkei22536026.94-0.9%USDCAD0.66160.21%chartbook.TheglobaleasingcycleeffectivelybeganlastOctoberwhenthenumberCSI3000.44AUDUSD0.61410.39%ofeasingcentralbanks(mostlyEM)exceededthosehikingforthefirstti...