Deutsche Bank-DBDaily DB A June Fed cut needs 0.2 core PCE-107461208

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch9April2024DBDailyGlobalDB:AJuneFedcutneeds0.2%corePhilOdonaghoePCEEconomist+61-2-8258-1606DB:AJuneFedcutneeds0.2%corePCEUSA:NYFed1-YrInflationExpectations(Mar):Unchangedat3.0%.DEU:Industrialproduction(Feb):Up2.1%mom,down4.9%yoy,abovemkt.JPN:BoPtradedeficit(Feb):NarrowstoJPY280.9bn,abovemkt.JPN:Labourcashearnings(Feb):Up1.8%yoy,atmkt.JPN:EcoWatchersoutlookindex(Mar):Down1.8ptsto51.2,belowmkt.AUS:Housingfinance(Feb):Up1.5%mom,belowmkt.JoinDBforanECBpreviewwebinar.MiddayLondontime,today.Registerhere.USequitieswereflatMonday,S&Punchanged.US10yryieldsup2bpsto4.42%,afreshhighthisyear.AmixedbagofGermanharddatathroughFebruary.MarcSchattenbergnotesFigure1:MarketSummarythatprivateconsumption,expectedtobethekeydriverofagentlerecoverythisyear,hasbeenanythingbutconvincing,althoughindustrialproductionhasstartedEquities5202.390.0%FX1.08580.24%theyearbetterthanexpected,up2.1%mominFebruaryandJanuaryrevisedupasS&P500508.930.5%EURUSD151.83-0.14%well.Overall,thereisenoughevidencetopointtoupsiderisktoMarc'sinitialStoxx6000.4%USDJPY1.26540.16%expectationofa-0.2%qoqgrowthprint.FTSE7943.470.9%GBPUSD1.35750.10%Nikkei22539347.04-0.9%USDCAD0.66040.38%Australiaowner-occupierhousingfinanceup1.6%mominFebruary,firstriseCSI300-0.84AUDUSD0.60320.32%sinceNovember.Investorfinanceup1.2%mom,buttheyear-endedpacesl...