Deutsche Bank-DBDaily US CPI this week-106469416

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch12February2024DBDailyGlobalUSCPIthisweekUSCPIthisweekPhilOdonaghoeCAN:Labourreport(Jan):Employmentup37.3k,abovemkt.EconomistNOR:CPI(Jan):Underlyingat5.3%yoy,asexpected+61-2-8258-1606USequitieswerestrongerFriday,S&Pup0.6%,endingtheweek1.4%higheratafreshrecordandalsoclosingabove5,000forthefirsttime.US10yryieldsup2bpsFridayto4.17%,up16bpsovertheweek.Fed'sLogan:UShasseen"tremendous"progressoninflation,but"moreworktodo".MattRaskinhasupdatedhisUSratesforecastsinlightofDB'ssoftnewsoftFigure1:MarketSummarylandingbaselinefortheeconomy.MattseesUS10yryieldsat4.15%bytheendoftheyear(previously4.05%),2yrsat3.75%(previously3.25%).OnQT,MattnowEquities5026.610.6%FX0.14%expectsFOMCwillcutthepaceinhalfaroundmid-year,asusageoftheONRRPS&P500484.83-0.1%EURUSD1.0787-0.13%facilityfallsbelow$150bn.RunoffatthisslowerpaceshouldcontinueuntilreservesStoxx600-0.3%USDJPY149.290.08%reach$3-3.25tn.FTSE7572.580.1%GBPUSD1.26310.07%Nikkei22536897.420.6%USDCAD1.34600.32%Meanwhile,FrancisYarednotescurrentmacropricingisbroadlyconsistentwithCSI300AUDUSD0.65260.89%asoftlandingoutcome.Assuch,herotateshisexistingSofrH4/U5flattenerintoVIX3364.930.14NZDUSD0.6153aSofr1yforward2s10ssteepener(target35bp,stop-10bp),whichoffersa12.93balancedapproachtotradethecurrentbalanceofrisks.DebtCommoditiesUST10UST24.170.02Oil81.930.4%SF...