BofA Global Research-The Flow Show Won’t save, won’t short

AccessibleversionTheFlowShowWon’tsave,won’tshortScoresontheDoors:crypto34.5%,oil17.1%,gold12.5%,commodities11.4%,stocks25April20244.6%,USdollar4.2%,cash1.7%,HYbonds0.2%,IG-3.0%,govtbonds-5.9%YTD.InvestmentStrategyTaleoftheTape:ifyouspent$100everysecondofeverydayitwouldtakeyou1966Globalyearstoequalthe$6.2trilliontheUSgovernmenthasspentthepast12months;fiscalexcess=nolanding=inflation=secularbearinbonds=ABB“AnythingButBonds”bull…stocks&cryptorippedQ4,commodities&cryptorippedQ1,inQ2turnofUS$toripasinvestorshedgeFedhikerisk&USgovtneedsUS$strengthtocounterinflation.ThePriceisRight:notsomethingyounormallyseewhenFedstartscuttingrates…globalhousepricesjumping(Chart3),USmetrohousepricesallrisingYoY(Table1),all-cashdeals=record47%ofallUSluxuryhomesalesinQ1;shortbondsuntilyieldshit2sd“oversold”levels…5.2%on2-year,5.1%on10-year&5.2%on30-yearTreasury(Chart4).TheBiggestPicture:ABBbull="longmonopolies,shortleverage"instocks;top10USMichaelHartnettstocks=record34%ofS&P500marketcap(Chart2–“Magnificent7”=30%),top10InvestmentStrategistglobalstocks=record23%ofMSCIACWI(2841constituents);narrowmega-capBofAS“growth”leadershipintactuntilreal10-yearyieldsof2½-3%and/orhigheryields+16468551508combinewithhighercreditspreadstothreatenrecession.michael.hartnett@bofa.comChart2:“AnythingButBonds”bull=“longmonopolies,shortlev...