Deutsche Bank-Asia Thematic Strategy Notes US election its implications...-107823490

DeutscheBankFXSpotDateResearch26April2024AsiaThematicAsiaStrategyNotesNorthAmericaUSelection&itsimplicationsforAsiaTheUSPresidentialelectionisshapinguptobeamongthemostimportantPerryKojodjojogeopoliticaleventsofthedecade.InareportbackinFebruary,wehadexploredStrategistwhattheoutcomeofthiselectioncouldmeanforemergingmarkets.Theopinion+852-22036153pollssincethencontinuetopointtowhatremainsatightlycontestedracebetweenPresidentBidenandthepresumptiveRepublicannomineeandformerPresidentSameerGoelTrump.Inthisreport,wezoominmorespecificallyonsomeofthekeytopicsthatMacroStrategistthetwocandidatesarelikelytofocusonintheirrespectivecampaignsastheyrelate+65-642-36973toChinaand,morebroadly,Asia.BryantXunPolicytowardsChinawilllikelyremainhawkish.AstrategicshiftwasStrategistalreadyunderwayintherelationshipbetweentheUSandChinabythetime+65-64235558PresidentTrumpfirstcametotheWhiteHouse;andhassincespannedboththeRepublicanandDemocratadministrations.RegardlessofwhoisJoeyChungelectedtobethenextPresident,wethinkUSpolicytowardsChinaislikelyStrategisttobeheavilyinfluencedbyanincreasinglyskepticalpublicperceptionof+65-64238298China,acountrywhichisviewedwithinUSpolicycirclesasbothaglobalDistributedon:26/04/202401:03:06GMTstrategiccompetitorandachallenger.nThreekeypolicytopicswillbeinfocus.ThethreeareasofmosteconomicconsequenceforUSpolicyo...