Deutsche Bank-Early Morning Haul Weather dominated last week (Rail + Truc...-106099874

DeutscheBankIndustryDateResearch23January2024EarlyMorningHaulNorthAmericaIndustryUpdateCanadaUnitedStatesIndustrialsAirFreight&LogisticsWeatherdominatedlastweek(Rail+AmitMehrotraTruck);+DieselResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-2076Railcarloads-TheClass1Railsreportedlastweek'svolumesyesterday.Thenumberswereprettybad,reflectingtheinclementweatheracrossmuchoftheBenMohrcountry.Weusuallydon'tplacemuchemphasisonweeklycompsduringthefirstResearchAnalystseveralweeksoftheyearduetoweatherdisruptions,butlastweekwasparticularly+1-212-250-1708difficult.Wenote,comparedwiththesequentialmoveintothethirdweekoflastyear(whichalsoincludedMLKDayonMonday),UNPwas-11%vs.-2%;CSX-17%ChrisRobertsonvs.-2%;NSC-13%vs.flat;CNI-16%vs.-3%,and;CP-15%vs.-4%.It'llbeResearchAnalystinterestingtoseehowtheweakerstarttotheyearisreflectedinthetoneof+1-212-250-9995managementteamsastheydiscuss2024outlooksinupcomingearningsthisweek.CNIkicksthingsofffortheRailsaftertheclosetoday-thecompany'svolumesaredown12%and10%yeartodateonanRTMandcarloadbasis,respectively,vs.consensusofflatRTMs;andthereiswidelyheldexpectationsthecompanywillguidetodouble-digitEPSgrowthforthisyear(consensus+11%vsDBe+8%).Truckrates-Thewinterweatherpushedtruckratesuplastweek,drivenbylesssupplyduetotheinclementweather(i.e.,moredriversstayedhome).Thenationaltenderrejectionrate,asreportedbyFreightwave...