Deutsche Bank-Fed Watcher No rush to cut with policy in a _good place_-107745491

DeutscheBankAmyYangResearchEconomist(+1)2122509959amy.yang@db.comFedWatcher:Norushtocutwithpolicyina"goodplace"MatthewLuzzettiChiefUSEconomistDistributedon:22/04/202419:06:07GMT(+1)2122506161matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayResearchAssociateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comApril22,2024IMPORDTeAuNtsTcheRBEanSkEAARmCyHYanDgIS(+C1L)O21S2U25R0E99S59AaNmDy.yaAnNg@AdLbY.cSomTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOReSsUeaRrcEhINFORAMprAilT22IO,2N02M4AYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:Norushtocutwithpolicyina"goodplace"Summary:Fedcommunicationscontinuedtoskewhawkish,signalinggreatercautionarounddisinflationprogressandnourgencyforratecuts.DBView:Theeconomywillachievesoftlanding.OnecutinDec2024,followedby2cutsin‘25andthenapauseuntilQ12026.FedspeakFedspeak,continuedFedspeak,continuedBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysPowell[3]▪RecentdatashowlackoffurtherWilliams▪NotinarushtocutratesGoolsbee▪Inflationprogresshasstalledin[2](04/18)▪Raisingrates‘isnotmybaseline’[1](04/19)2024;willtakelongertoreach2%(04/16)progressoninflationunlessdatawarrants▪‘GoldenPath’ismoredifficultfor‘24▪Willlikelybelon...