Deutsche Bank-Fed Watcher Pushing back on pricing of cuts, mixed messagin...-105975169

DeutscheBankAmyYangResearchEconomist(+1)2122509959amy.yang@db.comFedWatcher:Pushingbackonpricingofcuts,mixedmessagingonQTMatthewLuzzettiChiefUSEconomistDistributedon:16/01/202421:51:09GMT(+1)2122506161matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayResearchAssociateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comJanuary16,2024IMPORDTeAuNtsTchReBEaSnkEARAmCyHYDanIgSC(+L1O)2S1U2R25E0S99A59NDamAy.NyaAnLg@YSdbT.coCmERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOReSsUeaRrcEhINFORJManAuTarIyO1N6,2M02A4YHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:Pushingbackonpricingofcuts,mixedmessagingonQTSummary:Fedofficialscalledformoreevidencetoconfirmthedownwardtrendofinflation.MarchontableforthefirstcutbutnotdonedealDBView:Firstcutby50bpsinJune2024,withrisktiltedtowardsearlier.MildrecessionstartsinQ12024.Totalcutsof175bpsin2024FedspeakFedspeak,continuedFedspeak,continuedBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysWaller[4]▪MoreconfidentthatweareclosertoWilliams▪NotclosetoslowingQT,butwillGoolsbee▪Needmoredatabeforeratecuts(01/16)thegoal,butneedmoreinfoover[2](01/10)discussin‘24[1](01/11)▪Appliesrelativelyhighbartothe“comingmonths”confirminginflationdownto2%...