Deutsche Bank-US Economic Perspectives Outlook update Back in (the) blac...-106358100

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch5February2024USEconomicNorthAmericaPerspectivesUnitedStatesOutlookupdate:Backin(the)blackandMatthewLuzzetti,Ph.D.(sofar)donedirtcheapChiefUSEconomist+1-212-250-6161nWhenwefirstadoptedamildrecessionasourbaselineforecast,akeyelementwasthat,withaneconomyfarfromtheFed'sobjectives,theBrettRyanhistoryofcentralbank-induceddisinflationsshowedthepathtoasoftSeniorUSEconomistlandingwasnarrowifnotunprecedented.Wenowthinktheeconomywill+1-212-250-6294landonthisnarrowpathandthatarecessionwillbeavertedwithlimitedcostinthelabormarket.JustinWeidnerEconomistnTheUSeconomyperformedaswellascouldhavebeenhopedforin2023.+1-212-469-1679ThelabormarketreturnedtobetterbalancewithoutunemploymentrisingmateriallyandcorePCEinflationfellbelow2%annualizedinthesecondhalfAmyYangoftheyear.WeseevirtuousdynamicsatplaythatcouldextendtheseEconomistpositivedevelopments,includinganeasingoffinancialconditionsthathas+1-212-454-9893trimmeddownsideriskstogrowth.SuvirRanjannOurupdatedforecastsnowseegrowththisyearat1.9%(Q4/Q4),upResearchAssociatemeaningfullyfromourpriorforecastof0.3%.ConsistentwithourmoreDistributedon:05/02/202420:59:12GMToptimisticviewongrowth,wealsoanticipatethattheunemploymentratewillriseonlymodestlyto4.1%overtheyearaheadaspayrollgainsslowandlaborforceparticipationrisessomewhatfurther.nAlthoughinflationcou...