Deutsche Bank-Fed Watcher Not in any rush-107461086

DeutscheBankAmyYangResearchEconomist(+1)2122509959amy.yang@db.comFedWatcher:NotinanyrushMatthewLuzzettiDistributedon:08/04/202420:51:06GMTChiefUSEconomist(+1)2122506161matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayResearchAssociateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comApril08,2024IMPORDTeAuNtsTcheRBEanSkEAARmCyHYanDgIS(+C1L)O21S2U25R0E99S59AaNmDy.yaAnNg@AdLbY.cSomTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOReSsUeaRrcEhINFORAMprAilT08IO,2N02M4AYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:NotinanyrushSummary:Fedofficialsfleshedouttheirviewsonpolicyeasingthisyear,emphasizingpatienceamidsttheneedformoreconfidenceoninflation.DBView:Theeconomywillachievesoftlanding.Firstcutby25bpsinJune,atotalcutsof100bpsin‘24.Risksskewedinhawkishdirection.FedspeakFedspeak,continuedFedspeak,continuedBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysPowell[3]▪RecentdatadonotmateriallyKugler[3]▪Roomforfurthersupply-sideDaly[3]▪3cutsin‘24is‘reasonablebaseline’(04/03)improvementoninflation(04/02)▪Forstickierinflation,cutswillbeless(04/03)changeoverallpicture▪Policyinagoodplace.Standpat,▪‘Somelowering’ofratesthisyear▪Inflationwasn’tstrictlyfromdemand...