Deutsche Bank-Fed Watcher Rate cuts Not so fast, but also not so far-106978925

DeutscheBankAmyYangResearchEconomist(+1)2122509959amy.yang@db.comFedWatcher:Ratecuts:Notsofast,butalsonotsofarMatthewLuzzettiChiefUSEconomistDistributedon:11/03/202416:44:05GMT(+1)2122506161matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayResearchAssociateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comMarch11,2024IMPORDTeAuNtsTcheRBEanSkEAARmCyHYanDgIS(+C1L)O21S2U25R0E99S59AaNmDy.yaAnNg@AdLbY.cSomTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOReSsUeaRrcEhINFORMMaArcThI1O1,N20M24AYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:Ratecuts:Notsofast,butalsonotsofarSummary:FedChairPowellreiteratedthatratecutsat“somepointthisyear”,andnot“farfrom”achievingtheconfidencetocutDBView:Theeconomywillachievesoftlanding.Firstcutby25bpsinJune,atotalcutsof100bpsin2024occurringinJun/Jul/Sept/DecFedspeakFedspeak,continuedBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysPowell[3]▪Needsmoreconfidencetocut,notDaly[3]▪Policyingoodplace,‘moretodo’(03/06,07)farfromit(03/06)▪Fedfacing‘calibrationexercise’;▪PrefersnottoholdMBSonB/SKeepingrateshighfor‘toolong’can▪Seesalong-termcaseforcreateunforcederror,hurtingtheeconomyshorteningmaturityonFedholdings▪Risinghousingcostskeydriverof...