Deutsche Bank-Fed Watcher Just a little (more) patience-107609219

DeutscheBankAmyYangResearchEconomist(+1)2122509959amy.yang@db.comFedWatcher:Justalittle(more)patienceMatthewLuzzettiChiefUSEconomistDistributedon:15/04/202419:41:12GMT(+1)2122506161matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayResearchAssociateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comApril15,2024IMPORDTeAuNtsTcheRBEanSkEAARmCyHYanDgIS(+C1L)O21S2U25R0E99S59AaNmDy.yaAnNg@AdLbY.cSomTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOReSsUeaRrcEhINFORAMprAilT15IO,2N02M4AYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:Justalittle(more)patienceSummary:Stronginflationdatapointedtostallingprogressandmorecautionaboutthetimingandextentofratecuts.DBView:Theeconomywillachievesoftlanding.OnecutinDec2024,followedby2cutsin‘25andthenapauseuntilQ12026.FedspeakFedspeak,continuedFedspeak,continuedBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysFOMC▪Slowtreasuryrunoffpace‘fairlySchmid▪ReasontothinkrateswillstayhigherDaly[3]▪Nourgencytocutinterestratesminutessoon’.Prefertoadjusttreasurycap[4](04/12)forlonger;Bepatientandno(04/12)▪Needtobefullyconfidentaboutthe(04/10)ratherthanMBScappreemptivepolicyadjustmentsinflationpathheadingtowards2%.▪Favorsreducingmonthlya...