Deutsche Bank-Fed Watcher Not itching for an imminent cut-106492053

DeutscheBankAmyYangResearchEconomist(+1)2122509959amy.yang@db.comFedWatcher:NotitchingforanimminentcutMatthewLuzzettiChiefUSEconomistDistributedon:12/02/202419:50:07GMT(+1)2122506161matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayResearchAssociateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comFebruary12,2024IMPORDTeAuNtsTcheRBEanSkEAARmCyHYanDgIS(+C1L)O21S2U25R0E99S59AaNmDy.yaAnNg@AdLbY.cSomTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOReSsUeaRrcEhINFORFMebAruTaIrOyN12,M20A2Y4HAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:NotitchingforanimminentcutSummary:FedofficialsreiteratedmessagesfromJanFOMCmeetingthattheyneedtoseemoredata,notexpressingurgencyaroundratecutsDBView:Theeconomywillachievesoftlanding.Firstcutby25bpsinJune,atotalcutsof100bpsin2024occurringinJun/Jul/Sept/DecFedspeakFedspeak,continuedFedspeak,continuedBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysPowell[3]▪FedunlikelytohavetheconfidenceKugler[3]▪Ratecuts‘atsomepoint’withMester[4]▪Expectstogainconfidencetocut(02/07)continuedprogressoninflationand(02/04)foraMarchcutlabormarket;Ifdisinflationstalled,(02/06)‘laterthisyear’.Stillexpects3ratekeeprateshigherforlonger▪FOMCrateforecast...