Deutsche Bank-Early Morning Haul Rail volumes impress, Port imports, Mo...-105811683

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DeutscheBankIndustryDateResearch9January2024EarlyMorningHaulNorthAmericaIndustryUpdateCanadaUnitedStatesIndustrialsAirFreight&LogisticsRailvolumesimpress,Portimports,&AmitMehrotraMoreResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-2076Railcarloads-Yesterday,theClass1Railsreportedvolumesforthefirstweekoftheyear.Wecomparelastweek'svolumesto2018,asboththefirstweekof2018andBenMohrthefirstweekof2024endedonthe6thandincludedNewYearsEveandNewYearsResearchAssociateDayasthefirsttwodaysoftheweek.Sequentiallyintothefirstweekoftheyear,+1-212-250-1708UNPwas+6.1%in2024vs.+4.3%in2018,CSXwas+16.6%in2024vs.-0.9%in2018,NSCwas+12.0%in2024vs.+4.7%in2018,andCNIwas+11.5%in2024vs.ChrisRobertson+7.8%in2018(CPdoesnothaveproformacombinedCP-KCScarloadsfor2018).ResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-9995Portimports-U.S.portshandled1.89millionTEUs(20-footequivalentunits)inNovember,basedondatafromtheNationalRetailFederation.Thenumberwasup6.6%yearoveryearbutdown8%sequentially,withthesequentialdeclineabitbetterthantypicalseasonality.BasedonU.S.Customsdata,DescartessaidyesterdayitestimatedU.S.portimportstobeup0.4%sequentiallyinDecemberandup9.2%yearoveryear,whichisprettyencouraging.ButitalsoestimatedLosAngeleswasdown-5.3%andLongBeach-8.5%sequentiallyvs.NewYork/NewJersey+5.1%andSavannah+2.6%.ThismayhavesomeimplicationsforRailintermodalvolumesifthereissomemarketshareshiftback,tho...

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