Deutsche Bank-Thematic Research March 2024 Global Markets Survey Results-107208405

Distributedon:25/03/202408:51:08GMTDeutscheBankResearchMarch2024GlobalMarketsSurveyMarch2024JimReidHeadofGlobalEconomicsandThematicResearch(+44)-20-7547-2943jim.reid@db.comCassidyAinsworth-Grace(+44)-20-754-70142cassidy.ainsworth-grace@db.comWithspecialthankstoAnthonyChaimowitzofthedbDIGteamIMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaOurMarch2024globalfinancialmarketsurveyhadaround250responsesfromaroundtheworld,conductedbetweenthe20thand22ndofMarch.DeutscheBankResearchJimReid(+44)2075472943jim.reid@db.com1Ourrespondentsareleaningslightlytowardsthe‘nolanding’(45%)overthe‘softlanding’scenario(38%).Clearlytheissueofpersistentinflationremainsthekeyuncertaintyforthemarket,ratherthanfearsofarecession,asonly17%believethenextphasefortheUSisa‘hardlanding’.Bytheendof2024,whichphrasewillbestdescribewheretheUSeconomywillbe?50%45%40%38%30%20%17%10%0%Nolanding(norecession,inflationstillSoftlanding(norecession,inflationlikelytoHardlanding(recession)likelytoremainabovetarget)betrendingbacktowardstarget)2Source:dbDIGSurvey,DeutscheBank.JimReid(+44)2075472943jim.reid@db.comDeutscheBankResearchMoreandmorehavepushedoutexpectationsofaUSrecessionbeyond2024,with...