Deutsche Bank-Fed Watcher Parsing the pivot-105796671

DeutscheBankAmyYangResearchEconomist(+1)2122509959amy.yang@db.comFedWatcher:ParsingthepivotMatthewLuzzettiDistributedon:08/01/202422:36:06GMTChiefUSEconomist(+1)2122506161matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayResearchAssociateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comJanuary08,2024IMPORDTeAuNtsTcheRBEanSkEAARmCyHYanDgIS(+C1L)O21S2U25R0E99S59AaNmDy.yaAnNg@AdLbY.cSomTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOReSsUeaRrcEhINFORJManAuTarIyO0N8,2M02A4YHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:ParsingthepivotSummary:MinutespointedtolowerprospectsofMarchcutandsignaledthepossibilityofeventuallyslowingdownthepaceofQTDBView:Holdrates5.3%untilfirstcutby50bpsinJune2024.MildrecessionstartsinQ12024.Totalcutsof175bpsin2024FedspeakFedspeak,continuedFedspeak,continuedBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysBiasWhoTakeawaysFOMC▪EncouragedbyprogressonLogan[4]▪PrematureeasingoffinancialDaly[3]▪3cutscouldbeneededin2024tominutesdisinflation,thoughunevenacross(01/06)conditionsrisksinflationpickup(12/18)avoidover-tightening;Lessormorecomponents.Needmoreevidencecutsdependingoninflationprogressgivenriskofprogressstalling▪Won’ttakeanotherhikeoffthetablegiven...