Deutsche Bank-Fed Notes The next (and final) frontier Mapping condition...-108122906

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch8May2024FedNotesNorthAmericaUnitedStatesThenext(andfinal?)frontier:MappingMatthewLuzzetti,Ph.D.conditionsforcutsandhikesChiefUSEconomist+1-212-250-6161nAttheMayFOMCmeeting,ChairPowellditchedcalendar-basedguidanceandembraceddatadependence(see"Holdtheline,cutsaren'talwaysonBrettRyantime").Indoingso,hedetailedtheFed’sbroadreactionfunctiontovariousSeniorUSEconomisteconomicoutcomes.Inthispiece,weconductascenarioanalysisaround+1-212-250-6294conditionsforcuttingandhikingratesbasedonaratecutfrontierwefirstpublishedinourrecentmonthlychartbook(seeslide43here:"ThewaitingJustinWeidneristhehardestpart").Economist+1-212-469-1679nOuranalysisidentifiesconditionsfortheunemploymentrateandinflationthatwouldbeconsistentwithratecutsandhikesthisyeardependingonifAmyYangtheFedisactinginertiallyornon-inertially.Takentogether,theframeworkEconomistisconsistentwithcurrentsignalsfromtheFed,namely:ratesarelikelyatthe+1-212-454-9893peak;thenextmoveismorelikelytobearatecutthanarateincrease;butthatfurtherprogressoninflationisneededtogainconfidenceindisinflationandtriggerareduction.Distributedon:08/05/202413:03:04GMTDeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAP...