FICCResearchEconomics10May2024USOutlookCOREOver-readingthesignalsJonathanMillar+12125264876Withlastweek'ssignsoflabormarketslowingaccompaniedbyjonathan.millar@barclays.comdeteriorationinsoftindicators,marketshavebecomemoreBCI,USoptimisticthattheFOMCmightbeinclinedtocutearlierthanits"higherforlonger"messaging.WethinkthisextrapolationisMarcGiannonipremature,withafirminflationprintnextweekapossible+12125269373wake-upcall.marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI,US•Treasuryyieldslargelyretainedthepriorweek'sdeclines,whilea"badnewsisgoodnews"PoojaSriramdynamichashelpedextendearliergainsinequitymarkets,makingfinancialconditions+12125260713somewhatlessrestrictivethanontheeveoftheFOMCmeeting.Althoughthisweek'sjumpinpooja.sriram@barclays.cominitialclaimsanddeteriorationinconsumersentimentseeminglyhintatasofteningoutlook,BCI,USwethinkthisispremature,withmomentumstillsubstantialamidsupportivefundamentals.ColinJohanson•Nextweek'sinflationdatawilllikelyremindmarketsthatprospectsforareturntodisinflation+12125268536colin.johanson@barclays.comincomingmonthsremaintenuous.WeforecastthatcoreCPIwilldecelerateonlyslightly,toBCI,US0.34%m/m,amidanupswinginusedcarprices,andlookforretailsalesandindustrialproductiontotakeabitofabreatherontheheelsoftherobustcarryovereffectsleadingintoQ2.•FederaltaxreceiptsweresofterthanCBOforecastsduringtheApr...
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