Deutsche Bank-China Macro 10 charts on China’s industrial overcapacity-107776132

DDeeuutstcshcehBeaBnkankResearchChinaMacro10chartsonChina’sindustrialovercapacityDistributedon:24/04/202404:54:06GMTYiXiong,PhDDeyunOuChiefeconomist,ChinaResearchAssociate+85222036139April2024DReesuetIsMacrPchheORBTaAnkNTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATED(+I8N52A)P2P2E0N3D6I1X319.MCIY(iPX)i0o9n7g/,1P0h/2D022.UNTIL19thMARCH2021yi.xiong@db.comINCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYE7DT,2PLsEeA3SrE0SOEEt6AkPPwEoNDPIaX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.1.China’sindustrialcapacityutilizationratehasdeclinedsince2021,whilepriceshavedroppedsince2022.ThishasledtorenewedfocusonwhetherexcesscapacityisbuildingupagaininChina.2020=100China:industrialcapacityutilizationandproducerprices%12079Producerpricesindex,s.a.77110Industrialcapacityutilizationrate,s.a(rhs)1002017-19:Supply-sidereforms90752022-23:2014-16:bEuxilcdeinsgsucpapaagcaitiny?73Excesscapacity2020-21:Coviddisruptions71698020192020202120222023672013201420152016201720182024YiXiong,PhDSource:DeutscheBankResearch,NBS,HaverAnalytics,WIND(+852)22036139yi.xiong@db.com1DeutscheBankResearch2.Capacityutilizationwasunevenacrossindustries.In2023,almosthalfofallindustries’capacityutilizationratewerestillatorabovetheaveragelevelin2017-19.Meanwhile,afewindustries’capacityutilizationratehasdroppedtonearorevenbelowtheaveragelevel2014-16,whenChinahadexcesscapacityis...